Firas Elias – researcher
With the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani gaining the confidence of the Iraqi parliament, many expectations emerged that framed the work of research and studies centers and revolved around the nature of the outcomes of the external orientation of this government in the next stage, whether at the level of regional or international environments, and in this framework, the relationship between Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries received great attention, because of its great influence on the Iraqi interior, in addition to its role in formulating the regional balance equation in the region, and on this basis, this paper comes to highlight the nature of this relationship and the variables surrounding it, to reach a clearer strategic understanding of the general framework that connects Iraq is in the Gulf system.
Iraq and Gulf reconciliation
Iraq welcomed the Gulf reconciliation after more than three years of tensions between Qatar on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain on the other, and Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said following the final statement of the Alula summit in Saudi Arabia in January 2021: “we congratulate the Gulf Cooperation Council on the success of the Alula summit, and we welcome the return of relations between Saudi Arabia and the state of Qatar to their normal framework”. This Iraqi welcome came as a result of an Iraqi realization that the continuation of the Gulf-Gulf differences may cast a shadow on the situation in Iraq, and directly affect its foreign policy, especially with its regional surroundings, because of the complexities in regional conflicts, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the policy of the axes and blocs that arose in the region in the Gulf crisis, as well as Iraq’s quest to resume work on many Gulf projects, which were stopped due to the crisis, including the Qatari gas pipeline to Turkey through Iraqi territory, and the railway project between the Gulf and Turkey through Iraq, especially since these projects it will help to move the wheel of the economy Iraq is suffering a lot from crises.
The most prominent strategic impact of the Gulf reconciliation on Iraq is the possibility that this reconciliation will crystallize a unified Gulf position on the Iraqi situation, and in a framework that creates a state of political balance with the Iranian and Turkish influence, in addition to the role that Gulf reconciliation has played in easing internal Iraqi tensions, by adjusting the rhythm of political currents and parties that have good relations with the Gulf countries, and the role that can promote Iraq by making political settlements at a higher level, both at the level of Saudi-Iranian relations or at the level of regional relations more broadly, which was demonstrated by the Baghdad cooperation and Partnership Summit held in August 2021, if Iraq succeeds In bringing together most of the various regional powers, Iraq has demonstrated its ability to create a regional political consensus that restores stability to the region, an ability that would not have been possible without Gulf reconciliation and the unified Gulf position in supporting Iraq’s efforts in this context.
Therefore, it can be said that the Gulf crisis has greatly affected Iraq’s political role, especially since it came under difficult conditions experienced by Iraq, politically and security, as Iraq faced a great challenge in obtaining a unified Gulf position, through its quest for economic assistance, which made Iraq suffer from the lack of margin for political maneuver between the Gulf countries, due to the acute political polarization that accompanied the crisis, and therefore Iraq viewed Gulf reconciliation as an opportunity to create a state of political openness to all the countries of the Gulf system, to establish broader and more effective relations, specifically within the framework of reconstruction efforts, which emerged it is evident in the aid that Qatar provided it for the reconstruction of some cities destroyed as a result of the war against ISIS organization, and the UAE provided significant financial assistance for the reconstruction of the al-Nuri mosque in the city of Mosul, as well as Saudi Arabia announced its pursuit of large investment and agricultural projects in the Anbar desert.
One of the most prominent opportunities that Iraq sought to be translated by Gulf reconciliation comes in the framework of finding economic and energy alternatives that are more useful than Iranian energy supplies, and with the efforts made by the government of Mustafa al-Kazemi in completing the Energy Transfer Project with the Gulf countries, to give Iraq flexibility in providing electric energy supplies from multiple sources, and to achieve economic balance as a prelude to the Gulf political balance with Iran, but there are many obstacles that stood in the way of the government of Al-Kazemi in this direction, some stem from the Iraqi internal environment, and some are regional.
