By Ali Ziad al Ali, Researcher Specialising in International and Strategic Affairs
Iraq’s geopolitical position represents a strategic imperative and a reality which compels the superpowers to maintain relations with it. Japan recognised the importance of this vital position in terms of energy and geopolitics. Iraq represents a strategic opportunity to perpetuate the Japanese presence in the troubled Middle East region. Japan has always been an inspiration to emerging countries, including those of the third world, not least because of the strategic progress it achieved over a relatively short period of time, especially in light of the tragic aftermath of the Second World War.
The Japanese miracle is not only a Japanese invention, but also a product of American-Western industry. Japan’s ascent was accelerated to counter the threat of communism in East Asia; which necessitated the creation of liberal states in the Western-style. Hence, America poured support into both Japan and South Korea; so they become a strategic fulcrum for its operations in the region.
Japan’s foreign policy in Iraq is based on gaining influence through the use of “Japanese soft power” represented by the Japanese reputation for high quality manufacturing, refined culture and political acumen. This policy is evident in the direction taken by its ambassador to Iraq, Mr Fumio Iwai, who started to market this strategy in Iraq by employing flexible popular diplomacy tools from scratch and consolidating Japanese influence at the grassroot level of Iraqi social circles. Japan plays a role in providing funds, grants and loans, much of which has been allocated to Iraq’s infrastructure sector. Japan’s contribution to Iraq is estimated at about $7 billion, consisting of soft loans, grants and humanitarian aid. Herein lies one of the most important strategic cornerstones of Japan’s policy: increasing Japanese influence by focusing on the strategically important infrastructure sector.
Japan is adopting a new approach to its foreign policy, especially as it is increasingly moving towards a new foreign strategy to cope with the challenges that have plagued the surrounding regional and global environment. Japan is an exceptional country with great influence on the countries of the Middle East. Japan’s gravitation towards the region happened because of the changes that inflicted the strategic fabric of the global order, which had become fragmented, and because of the rise of one power at the expense of another. There was also the reluctance by certain powerful international players, which had until then led the field in the management of the various international political portfolios, and here we mean the United States; thus paving the way for the emergence of Japan in the key role of managing the portfolios that had weighed heavily on the United States of America, especially in the Middle East and specifically Iraq and the surrounding region.
Japan’s interest in the Middle East in general, and in Iraq in particular, is based on several strategic variables that have themselves also been influenced by the dynamics of Japan’s foreign policy and strategic direction. Japan has realised, somewhat belatedly, the importance of the Middle East which, as a region, represents the crucible where the interests of all the great powers intermingle, led by China, as well as the geoenergy significance of the region, with its huge reservoirs of both oil and gas. Thus, Japan aspires to immerse itself more intensely in the region by strengthening its ties with pivotal countries in the region, most notably Iraq, which represents a geostrategic and energy rich location for an energy hungry Tokyo. Japan’s ambition is to intensify its presence in Iraq to counter China’s rising influence in the Gulf region and to push back against the tide of China’s “One Belt” strategy with a series of alliances. Here, we are not referring to traditional alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a characteristically military one, but a new generation of flexible alliances that supersede the strategic ones. As a consequence, Japan chose Iraq, a country with deep strategic significance, as a launching pad for its strategic ambitions in the region. The intensification of Japan’s presence in Iraq stems from a number of strategic considerations, including:
1 – Iraq’slocation as a strategic barrier to the Chinese “One Belt, One Road (OBOR)” initiative:
Japan has been intensifying its strategic presence in Iraq to repel the Chinese One Belt strategy, which aims to expand China’s strategic influence Westwards. Japan therefore chose Iraq as the cornerstone of its efforts to impede the One Belt strategy. Japan is also seeking strategic allies with geostrategic influence to contain Chinese expansionism in the region and who are capable of playing an effective parallel and influential role in stemming China’s strategic ambitions in the region .
2 – Iraq and the Asian-African Development Corridor Strategy:
Japan and its ally India embarked on a project parallel to China’s One Belt, One Road initiative. Japan’s intention is to boost its footprint westwards, extending it from the western border of India and all the way to the heart of the African continent. Japan therefore chose Iraq as an outpost for its future strategic ambitions, and it is cementing these ambitions by immersing itself in various infrastructure projects, very much in the same way as China is doing in the Central Asian countries, and all the way to the eastern border of Iran. Thus, Iraq is the opposing pole in the development corridor strategy. Japan has been paving the way for this strategy with soft tactics, because it represents the most successful strategy for influencing Iraq’s internal and external strategic environment.
3 – Iraq’s energy in the Japanese strategy:
Japan is a country with limited potential and primary resources. It relies entirely on importing these resources from overseas. It imports some 90% of its oil from the Gulf region. Japan’s energy security is therefore the driver of its economic dynamism. It must therefore do everything it can to secure supplies form the region, and at the same time limit China’s control over upstream operations, especially now that China has begun to boost its energy presence in the Gulf and Iraq. Consequently, Japan is seeking to consolidate its strategic presence by boosting its footprint in the region and in Iraq in particular. Japan is also working to establish an effective geoenergy rivalry with China by reinforcing its network of strategic relationships with energy-producing countries such as Iraq and a few other Gulf states.
4 – The root cause for America’s strategic presence in the region:
After the US turned its attention towards East Asia and the consequent imbalance in the strategic balance of power in the region, Japan rushed to restore what can be restored of the strategic balance. The American administration was content to allow Japan to step in and to provide support for America’s strategy in the region, which had of late suffered from a series of setbacks that had led to a rise in the fortunes of some of America’s and Japan’s global and regional rivals, with China taking the lead, which was gaining an ever greater economic and strategic foothold in the region. Hence Japan’se interest in the region, and Iraq more specifically, to redress the strategic balance in favour of Japan and its Western allies.
5 – Managing the strategic balance equation from a distance:
After China’s quiet rise as an economic and militarily power, strategic necessity dictated that Japan expand its strategic presence outside the Pacific rim, by breaking out of the strategic balance and expanding outwards, which China and Japan are doing simultaneously. As these powers continue to vie with each other to sustain their strategic foothold in geostrategic regions such as Central Asia and the Middle East; Japan must contend with managing an extended global balance whose consequences go beyond the regional dimension. Japan has adopted this strategy because of geo-strategic constraints in the Asia-Pacific region and because of the multiplicity of powers and their mutual antagonism. Consequently, Japan headed to the Middle East and the Gulf to reinstate the international balance through her physical presence, such that her influence resonates beyond the region and its repercussions felt in East Asia and beyond.
Finally, it is possible to say that Japan is pursuing the doctrine of “covert infiltration” in its efforts to consolidate the Asian-African Development Corridor strategy, which represents a major strategic project that requires huge efforts to accomplish the different elements, and which is facing some stiff resistance from China and its allies. In order to consolidate this project, Japan has surmised that it must rely on vertical regional forces – by which we mean Iraq, where it has begun to market its strategy by intensifying its “soft” presence in Iraqi society, as well as investing in Iraq’s infrastructure, which is the second pillar of its pivotal strategy in the region.
