Iraq and the Three Nations

Hussein Darwish al-Adly, a Researcher and Academic.

“Iraq is the epicentre of three nations (the Arab, Iranian and Turkish). Its cohesion implies the unity of the three Middle East nations, while its disintegration certainly means the redrawing of the entire region’s geopolitics. Iraq’s division is forbidden and surviving as a state of concern is not possible; being a balanced state is the best option for Iraq and the region as a whole.”

Geo-Socio-Political Iraq

• Iraq is the center of the Middle East due to its geo-socio-political location, which is the link between three nations: Arab, Iranian and Turkish. It is the only Middle Eastern country that is geographically, socially, religiously, culturally and ethnically linked to Iran, Turkey, and the Arab world by a bond of agreement, association, and engagement. Iraq’s final consequences will directly affect the map of solidity or division of the societal and political geography of these three nations. Here lies the importance of Iraq, no matter if it’s united or in pieces, this is what must be realized and used when managing the regional and international political process on Iraq’s own land.
• Currently, the Iraqi state is divided horizontally as a nation into sub-nations, and vertically as centres of power expressing its societal components with a centre of governance which seeks to nationalize the state and contain both the society and the state centres of It can therefore reflect and carry it, in order to overcome the breaking point.
• Due to its actual situation, Iraq is currently geo-strategically low among the three strategies of the three nations, and is therefore the focus of their actual conflicts. Because of the overlap of regional and international files, Iraq, both politically and economically, is the source of conflict of the concerned international axis in the region.
• The most important strategies seeking to integrate Iraq into its vital area are: first the American and European strategy, with the specificity of the German and French strategy whose discourse differs with the US in many files. Second, the active Russian strategy in its Iranian-Syrian regional axis. Third, the strategy of Saudi Arabia and the Arab countries in the same approach. Fourth, the strategy of Iran as well as the Turkish-Qatari strategy, with a specificity to the Israeli-Qatari strategy which depends on reshaping the regional map at both the community and political levels. The agenda of these strategies may come closer, further or even differ depending on the complexity of the files and the movement of new interests here and there.
• Regional and international strategies are identified with Iraq’s inside because of the overlap of social geography, participation in the wealth map, and being the epicenter of other continents’ interests on its land. This interference is translated by many state powers adoption of the visions of these strategies and agendas in the actions of the Iraqi state and its positions, and vice versa.

Factors of Iraq’s Current Crisis

There are four factors that combine to produce the current Iraq crisis:

• The disastrous legacy of the Saddam regime at various levels, which broke all the structures necessary to make the qualitative changes of the patterns of society and the state. It also complicated all attempts to promote change.
• The failure of the current political process to produce a successful state because of the let-down of the establishing elites, different visions and policies, and conflicting agendas within the same political process. The essence of the relapse of the political process is represented in the conciliatory, ethnic-sectarian, and partisan system that has been adopted to build the state. A system that, in accordance with current requirements, leads to the establishment of a system of ethnic and sectarian rivalries (the Lebanese model), or collide to be formally united (the Yugoslav model) or is weakened to collapse (the Somali model).
• The adverse qualitative act by most of the countries of the region to contain the change in Iraq and terminate it through the policies of political boycotts, organized terrorism, counter media, and negative containment.
• The conflicting strategies of containment and guidance as well as regional and international investment which produced a polarization and a sharp conflict regarding the model of the Iraqi state was to be produced after 2003.

The Three Models of the Iraqi State

There are three assumed models of the Iraqi state as a result of the current conflicts: the state of the non-model, the state of bias, and the state of strategic balance. The existence of one depends on the outcome of the Iraq-Iraq conflict and on the contact of regional and international strategies and of their understanding or collision. These models are:

• The model of the state of concern which is the model of the current Iraqi state after the change of 2003. I mean the model of the absence of a state, and the failure of the regularity of its contexts, institutions and unity measures. It is the model of fragile coexistence which is threatened every moment to return to square one. A model of division of the nation or the state itself divided. A model of economic corruption and failure, interference and intervention, regional and international theft, permanent internationalization which cancels sovereignty, and the release of clashing disputes of regional conflicting strategies. A model of passing international agendas to create new global conditions. A model of crisis absorption and settling of scores and so on. It is closer to the Lebanese model and cannot withstand much because of Iraq’s geo-social and geo-political location, and because of the intensity of its conflicting strategies and its polarization.
• The model of the state of bias which is the model by which the Iraqi state falls in the vital area of a strategy. Such as being Arab biased, to be a new eastern gate against the Iranian axis. Or being Iranian biased, to be in an Iranian advanced position against the Arab axis. Or being US biased, to be in an advanced position for US policy in the region etc. The model of bias is a suicidal model which leads to the re-production of the crises of Iraq and the region.
• The model of the state of effective balance: which is the model of the Iraqi state being internally balanced to play the role of regional and international balance in order to qualify Iraq to be a real strategic balanced power, and to balance the major regional strategies. It thus prevents existential clashes and creates a strategic stability in the Middle East.

Effective balance means a strong political, economic and military Iraqi state capable of maintaining a positive balance between regional strategies. It is the best model for Iraq and the region. A weak Iraq will inevitably lead to an existential clash between the major strategies, and its dispersion will lead to a re-drawing of the regional political map for most of the countries in the region.

• Note 1: The option of neutrality is not possible given the qualitative vulnerability of Iraq and the (encroachment) of the vital area of regional strategies, in addition to the burden of the international conflict in the Middle East. Actual requirements will eliminate the possibility of exercising a policy of neutrality. The talk of neutrality can only take place after achieving the cohesion of the state, the creation of its own entity, and the creation of its identity and interests that express its unified nation. Positive neutrality requires the ability of the state’s power to impose its policy. We must not forget that choices among nations are imposed by the power of the State itself.
• Note 2: The option of dividing Iraq is unlikely. Full division is not allowed neither regionally nor internationally according to the current structure of the political map of the region. This is not related to Iraqi national or sectarian aspirations as much as to the regional-international factor. The division of Iraq means the division of the three sovereign nations: Arab, Iranian and Turkish. This means producing a new political map for the region and the world. The Turkish and Iranian nations cannot accept such a transformation and its repercussions.

Iraq Is the Pivot Country of the Middle East

The balanced and balancing Iraq model cannot be achieved without observing the following factors:

• Iraq is a centre for the intersection of the three Middle Eastern nations, Arab, Iran and Turkey. It is considered the strategic security centre politically, economically and socially. Its collapse or unity, and strength or weakness will determine the fate of the whole region. It is the centre of gravity and the point of balance between the three nations.
• Iraq is the cornerstone of balance point equations and the interests of the Middle Eastern countries. Any weakening or division will drag these nations and people into major conflicts, and we will see new geopolitics that the world cannot handle. Any stability in the region requires the creation of a strategic balanced and balancing Iraq for the three strategies which prevents its deadly collision.
• A strategic balanced Iraq is: the model of the Iraqi state balanced internally which plays the role of effective regional and international balance; in order to qualify Iraq to be a real strategic, peaceful, balanced and balancing force.
• Today’s Iraq suffers from a great structural weakness caused by the failure of the model of the modern Iraqi state in administration and governance, and its adoption of the regional axis policy translated by the theory of the eastern gate. This has happened because of the theory of party rule, and the system of ethnic sectarian quotas that are compatible with the strategies of the region that try to bring the Iraqi state to their strategic space, or create their own reserves to defend the interests of regional states’ strategies.
• The stability of the region depends on the stability of Iraq. Any bias by Iraq towards regional strategies will tear both it and the region apart. The stability of Iraq and the region requires the creation of a strategic balanced Iraq, and this model needs Iraq to rethink its policies and management, while preserving its democratic experience and constitutional institutions. Today, Iraq needs the theory of the Symbolic State, which is represented in a solid centre of governance that controls the state, its actions and its duties. The facts are that society is depriving the government of power, parties are absorbing the state, the presence of the existential competitive struggle between the forces and components of the state, the use of violence and terrorism as a political tool, in addition to the weakness, corruption, the theft, etc… All these factors have brought the state to what it is. The objective requirement considers the need to adopt the policy of growing power to bring things back on track. This growing power is manifested in a fair and decisive ruling characterized by bold reforms, planned adventure, a policy of multiple confrontations and restraints, a policy of flexible political balance, an intended separation from the struggle of political blocs and parties, and a deliberate crystallization of the symbol, prestige and sovereignty of the ruling state.

Creation of a Strategic Balanced Iraq

To create a strategically balanced Iraq we need:

• Concentrate, crystallize and activate the solid centre of governance through the Symbolic State Project at the expense of the effectiveness of the governing parties’ project to ensure the unity of the state and the power of its authorities and institutions. Including effective and disciplined restructuring of military and security forces and weapons, restoring prestige to the state, strengthening the rule of law, imposing firm security plans for cities, and courageous steps to strike corruption.
• A historic Iraqi political and societal reconciliation that ensures the end of the national, sectarian and ethnic conflicts that have divided the country. It also guarantees an acceptable level of the national unity of the state and its authorities, ensuring justice and interests for all Iraqis of all nationalities, religions, sects and ethnicities.
• Continue the radical, comprehensive and decisive reforms of all administrative, economic, educational and developmental structures of the State in accordance with the basis of good governance and strengthen partnership with the private sector.
• Adopt a policy of serving interests that ensures the positive containment of regional axis which creates a regional and international understanding that a unified, strong and peaceful Iraq will protect the interests and positive balances in the region and prevent deadly clashes between conflicting strategies.
• Disengage the files of the region as much as possible. This secures the lack of recognition of the geo-sectarian fronts, and facilitates the management of the Iraqi model, and achieve its interests away from the direct impact of the complex files of the region.
• A clear road map to protect Iraq’s strategic balanced model from self-destruction or external predators until the state project is back on its feet.